The race to the top in the ICC World Test Championship is heating up, with several teams still in the running for a spot in the final. Here's a breakdown of the current standings and what each team needs to do to reach the 60% mark, a score that should give them a reasonable chance of qualifying for the final.
Australia: The Dominant Force
Australia is currently sitting pretty at the top of the table with an impressive 80% win rate. With 12 remaining Tests, they need 63 more points to finish this cycle with 60%. This means they need only five wins and a draw. However, they will want much more than 60%, given where they are currently. Six wins will take them to 63.63, while seven wins and five losses will leave them on 68.18.
The challenge for Australia lies in their remaining matches. Only four of their 12 remaining Tests are at home - all against New Zealand - while their eight remaining matches are all tough overseas assignments: three in South Africa and five in India, where they have won only two of their last 12 Tests. Despite their comfortable position, Australia still have plenty of work to do to make sure they finish in the top two.
South Africa: The Subcontinent Specialists
South Africa has done exceptionally well in the subcontinent, drawing 1-1 in Pakistan and shocking India 2-0. They now have the luxury of playing eight of their ten remaining Tests at home, though three of those are against table-toppers Australia. To get to 60%, South Africa need 65 more points, which they can get with five wins and a couple of draws. Six wins and four losses in their remaining matches will take them to 64.28%, while a 7-3 output will mean 71.43, and near-certain qualification.
New Zealand: The Home Advantage
New Zealand are currently sitting pretty after series wins against West Indies (home) and England (away). However, among their ten remaining matches is a tough four-Test examination in Australia. From the remaining 120 points on offer, they need 64 to achieve 60%, which they can get with five wins and a draw. Four of those victories could come in their home season, if they win all Tests against India and Sri Lanka. For a place in the final, though, they probably need more than just home success: with six wins and four losses they will finish on 64.58%, while seven wins and three losses will leave them on 70.83%.
Bangladesh: The Underdogs
Despite the defeat in Mackay, Bangladesh are still in the running to finish with a 60% score, which could keep them in contention for a top-two finish. To do that, they need 47 more points in their six remaining Tests - wins in each of their four remaining home Tests, against West Indies and England, will get them there. If they win one more Test apart from those four, their percentage will shoot up to 69.44, which will give them an excellent chance of qualification. The key, though, will be to ensure they maximise the returns from their home matches.
India: The Slipping Contender
India's inability to bowl Sri Lanka out on the final day and claim 12 points from the Colombo Test means they have dropped to 51.52%, and need 62 more points from their seven remaining Tests to reach 60%. That means they need at least five wins and a draw. Depending on other results, even that may not be enough: in the last cycle, the finalists finished with 69.44 (South Africa) and 67.54% (Australia). Five wins and two losses will leave them on 59.3%, while six wins and a loss will see them finish on 64.8%. If they win all seven, they'll end up with 70.37%. Thus, India have very little margin for error through the rest of their campaign.
Sri Lanka: The Long Shot
With only 24 points in the bag after six Tests, Sri Lanka have left themselves with plenty to do in the second half of the cycle. In six remaining Tests, they need 63 points to touch 60%, which means they need five wins and a draw at least. Six wins will take them to 66.67%. Given that two of those six Tests will be in New Zealand early next year, winning each of their remaining matches looks an extremely tough ask.
England: The Over-Rate Penalty
As if a 5-8 win-loss record wasn't bad enough, England have also been horribly tardy with over-rates in this WTC cycle, being docked 14 points so far. That means 64 points from five wins and a draw has been reduced to 50. Even if they win each of their seven remaining Tests without losing further penalty points, they will only finish on 53.17%, which is highly unlikely to be enough for a spot in the final.
West Indies: The Early Exit
With just two Tests remaining, the maximum that West Indies can finish on is 32.14%.
Pakistan: The Penalty Points
With two wins and five losses, Pakistan have had a poor campaign so far, further compounded by eight penalty points. If they win all six remaining Tests, they will still only finish on 56.41%, which is highly unlikely to be enough for qualification.
